In this blog post, we will examine whether the concept of infinite energy that Yuval Noah Harari talks about in “Sapiens” is feasible in the current technological and economic conditions.
According to Yuval Noah Harari’s book “Sapiens,” Part 4, “The Scientific Revolution,” Chapter 17, “The Industrial Wheel – The Sea of Energy,” the history of Sapiens, or humans, has grown rapidly with the development of capitalism, which is attributed to the increased size of the pie. In other words, for continuous development, the size of the pie must continue to grow. It is also said that the amount of energy available to humans is infinite. To understand this, we first need to define “energy.” Energy is defined as the ability to do work physically. Energy can be broadly divided into biological energy and chemical energy. However, in this article, biological energy sources such as horses and cows are excluded from the scope of energy defined in “Sapiens” because they are outside the scope of the discussion. Chemical energy can be interpreted as a substance with enthalpy. This article will argue three reasons why the chemical energy defined above is finite.
First, the amount of alternative energy currently available is limited. “The total amount of energy stored in all of the Earth’s fossil fuels is negligible compared to the energy the sun provides every day for free,” says ‘Sapiens’ about solar energy, which is considered the most promising alternative energy source. However, the amount of solar energy that actually reaches the Earth is very small. Q. In the case of PEAK products, the energy efficiency is only about 18.3% (the maximum efficiency is known to be about 19.9%, but we will consider the average energy efficiency), which is extremely low compared to the 70-80% energy efficiency of chlorophyll a in photosynthesis in plants, which is the energy efficiency when it acts as a battery, as cited in “Sapiens.” In addition, the conditions for using solar energy are very limited. It requires a large area of land, preferably a plain, and clear weather is essential for sunlight to reach the land. It is easy to see that there are not many areas on the planet that meet these conditions. Therefore, based on the above, it can be sufficiently explained that the amount of available alternative energy is limited.
Second, if an economically inefficient energy source is developed, it is very unlikely to be used as the main energy source. Most countries on Earth adopt the capitalist market logic as their economic policy, which affects all aspects of our lives. The same is true in the energy sector. No matter how good an energy source is developed, if the opportunity cost of obtaining it is too high, no one will want to use it. Currently, the most commonly used energy source is fossil fuels represented by gasoline, and the advantage of gasoline is that it is cheap for the energy it provides. It is known that the combustion enthalpy that can be obtained by purchasing 1L of gasoline for 1,500 won is 34.8MJ. If the cost of obtaining 1J of energy from a new energy source is less than 0.000043 won, the new energy source will hardly be used. Of course, there is room for counterargument. For example, if a new energy source is proposed as a solution to a problem that is deemed more serious, even if it involves additional economic losses such as environmental or safety issues, more people will be willing to use it. The reasons for this are that interest in new energy sources has increased as awareness of the fine dust caused by coal-fired power plants and aging diesel vehicles has risen recently, and kerosene, which is cheaper than gasoline, has not become the most common energy source among fossil fuels, surpassing gasoline. However, groups or individuals seeking to create high added value are more likely to rely on existing energy sources for greater profits, and groups or individuals experiencing economic difficulties are also more likely to continue using existing energy due to the greater risks associated with introducing new energy. For example, in order to collect solar energy to a level that can be used in everyday life, a large number of solar cells are required, which is too expensive for a single household to bear. Of course, countries with eco-friendly energy policies, such as Germany, provide subsidies to households that install solar cells, but this is only possible when the country’s economy is strong, which is difficult in most countries. Therefore, in order to adopt new energy throughout society, it needs to be more economically efficient than existing energy.
Third, time is limited. “Sapiens” states that energy is abundant and sufficient, and presents “the knowledge needed to find energy and convert it to suit our needs” as evidence. Of course, solar energy is abundant. However, as mentioned earlier, the efficiency of the solar cells currently commercialized by humans is only about 18.3%. In order to use solar energy as a primary energy source like gasoline, the development of new solar cells is essential. These new solar cells must have both high energy efficiency and high economic efficiency. According to the Korea Institute of Energy Research (KIER), Korea is currently developing silicon solar cells with an energy efficiency of 16-20%, but they have not been commercialized due to their poor economic efficiency. The third-generation nano solar cells currently under development are expected to have an energy efficiency similar to that of silicon solar cells, but they have an efficiency of about 1/1000 in terms of economic efficiency, and their commercialization is very likely. However, technological development tends to be inversely proportional to time, so it is expected that it will take a considerable amount of time to develop solar cells with energy efficiency similar to that of plants. Therefore, it will take a long time to use solar energy as the main energy source, and if we fail to do so before the depletion of petroleum fuels, humanity will face a serious energy crisis during the transition period. In addition, if the time it takes to expand and supplement the existing gasoline-centric infrastructure with solar energy is taken into account, the development of solar energy as the main energy source should be carried out at a faster pace.
Based on the above three reasons, we can conclude that the energy available at the current point in time is finite. Of course, we only considered solar energy as an alternative energy source for primary energy sources such as gasoline, but this is based on the judgment that it has the highest potential for substitution among existing energy sources, and new energy may be developed to replace gasoline. However, it is not appropriate to consider something that has not yet occurred as a variable, so it has been excluded from the argument. Therefore, at present, the energy available is finite, and in order to prepare for future uncertainties, we will need to save energy and work on developing technologies to prepare for the new era.
