In this blog post, we will look at whether we are truly living in a time of peace and whether we are overlooking an invisible threat.
Today, most people do not fear that they will be slaughtered tomorrow for no reason, or that they will lose everything in a war. They can also travel across the mountains without worrying that bandits will rob the wealth of the wealthy. We do not want war or a major revolution to upend society, and we want things to be handled without bloodshed. We are educated and live with awareness. The outbreak of war is inhumane and we should not cause it. Modern society is so closely connected that it is called the “global village,” and the impact on one country has a cascading effect on other countries. Trade and diplomacy further strengthened the connections between countries. Even between countries that are not physically close or have different ideologies, they have become inseparable.
In this situation, modern society is facing new challenges that we have never experienced in the past. In particular, new types of threats that have emerged with the development of technology are affecting our lives in a different way than in the past. For example, the development of the Internet has dramatically accelerated the flow of information, increasing the likelihood that we will experience war not only in the physical world but also in cyberspace. Invisible wars such as hacking, cyberterrorism, and information manipulation are bringing new horrors to our society. These threats are amplifying conflicts between nations and sometimes have a greater destructive power than traditional wars.
Some say that this is the era of peace. They say that we are living in an era of true peace, not just peace. This is true peace because the number of deaths caused by war and violence has decreased, and most societies do not accept war. Of course, according to the figures of some organizations, the death rate from violence and war has decreased significantly, and in many cases, it is oneself who causes people to die. They also say that as the network of connections between countries has become more closely knit, the profits from war have decreased, and as independence has been lost, the likelihood of one country starting a war has decreased. But can the decrease in disputes between countries and the decrease in the number of deaths from war and violence be indicators of peace? Is it just because we can’t think about the lives of people in the past that we don’t recognize peace? Does the strengthening of the network of connections between countries really only lead to peace?
It is difficult to make such a conclusion. The way we live has changed so much that it is meaningless to consider the past, from the time when people hunted and gathered in the past, to the time when agriculture began, and to the time after the Industrial Revolution when the Internet appeared. The cognitive revolution has enabled humans to develop consciousness and create an order of imagination. Since then, we have continued to create new orders of imagination, and new types of knowledge have continued to accumulate and technology has developed. Ultimately, a different consciousness and a different way of life emerged from the past. The changed way of life has also changed the way we perceive threats. However, some people not only fail to distinguish and define peace between the past and today, but also compare peace based simply on the number of deaths caused by war and violence. This is overlooking damage that does not result in casualties, and overlooking damage that may occur in the future. Of course, in terms of consciousness, in the modern era, not only intellectuals but also the general public support peace. It is a big difference from the past that people view war as something that should be denied, not a necessary evil. As a result, it has become difficult to find an all-out war between countries using weapons since 1945. Even when the great imperial powers of the United Kingdom and France dismantled their empires, the number of wars was reduced compared to the past. Unfortunately, the war between Russia and Ukraine and the war between Israel and Hamas are ongoing, but the number of overall wars, including civil wars and coups, has decreased worldwide.
However, it cannot be said that the reduction in total war using weapons is peace. In prehistoric times, weapons were developed in the form of spears and bows made of stone and wood, and then knives made of iron, and then guns and cannons. As the scientific revolution progressed, humans made amazing discoveries, and we not only created nuclear weapons, but also developed biochemical weapons. We are not just using the Internet, but we are also causing harm by using the Internet that surrounds our lives. As the global village has been created, we have been placed in a special situation where we have more influence between countries politically and economically, and using this to pressure other countries has become more influential. When we strengthen retaliatory trade against other countries, we are more dependent on them, so we suffer more damage. It has also become possible to paralyze the computer networks of other countries using hacking, viruses, and other cyber-attacks. These are new types of weapons. It is no longer possible to measure the damage by the existence of visible casualties, and these threats are as much a part of our lives as the threats of war and violence in the past. Currently, these weapons are being used secretly, and when the hidden ones explode, the damage cannot be easily predicted. The reason we don’t feel afraid or worried is probably because we’ve become accustomed to these events happening frequently all over the world.
After gaining independence from Russia in 2007, Estonia was hit by a DDoS attack from Russia, causing the country’s computer network to be paralyzed for several days, resulting in the paralysis of state functions. Around 2010, the United States used a malware called Stuxnet to damage Iran’s nuclear facilities, including centrifuges used to enrich uranium, while making it difficult to identify the cause of the damage. Terrorists using advanced technology come in unseen, cause great damage, and disappear. In addition, the strengthening of trade regulations by taking advantage of the increased interdependence between countries has also intensified the damage caused by what appears to be a trade war. The US and the EU do not recognize China’s market economy status and are strengthening trade barriers. Meanwhile, since the Trump administration, the US and China have been imposing fines on each other for antitrust violations, strengthening trade barriers, and waging a trade war. This ripple effect is not limited to China and the US, but is affecting the global economy.
Nuclear weapons, which have evolved from existing weapons, are controlled through conventions and treaties, but this does not mean that we can rest easy. Both biological and nuclear weapons have been developed to such a degree that they have the power to devastate a country. In particular, in the case of colorless and odorless biological weapons such as anthrax, we cannot even identify their identity and we may be exposed to them. The CWC and the NPT do not fully protect us. In particular, countries that do not possess nuclear weapons must always be on the lookout for military movements by nuclear-weapon states. If they attempt to attack, there is no way to deal with it. We may feel that the degree of fear is low and that we are in a state of peace because we simply accept all of this as normal and familiar. It is an illusion to be complacent that peace is the absence of war.
We live in a reality where interdependence between countries has increased and independence has weakened in the global community. However, the global village does not mean that we are truly pursuing common interests. It simply means that we are more accessible to each other. Great powers can always switch gears to undermine this network and take advantage of their own interests. We must not overlook the fact that even if no casualties are incurred, there can be significant damage at the national level. Also, under the protection of the agreement, we mistake the current temporary state of no casualties for peace rather than fear. What you see is not all there is. Just because it happens below the surface and cannot be seen at the moment does not mean that its existence can be denied. This is an era in which we cannot prepare for a threat because we cannot see it, but we must always be prepared, so we feel more fear and need to be equipped. We are not living in an era of peace.
