In this blog post, we will look at why you feel unlucky, Murphy’s Law, and the psychological delusions behind it.
Murphy’s Law
On days when the shuttle bus arrives later than usual, the line is much longer than expected, and the shuttle bus doesn’t come even after waiting for a long time, and I often experience the doors closing in front of me. I often wonder why bad things happen to me. For example, not only do you miss the bus, but if you’re in a hurry in the morning, you might spill your coffee on an especially important day or trip over your untied shoelaces. When I’m standing in line at the bathroom or the checkout line at the supermarket, even if I choose the line that seems to be the shortest, the line in front of me moves the slowest. Also, if I accidentally drop a bread with jam on it, why does the jam always touch the floor?
Whenever people experience such things, they recall “Murphy’s Law,” which says that unlucky things always happen to them alone. Murphy’s Law was first mentioned in 1949 by Captain Murphy, who was working at an air base. He said, “There are many ways to do something, and if one of them can cause a problem, someone will definitely use that method.” It was used to mean that you should always think about bad things and prepare countermeasures. However, nowadays, Murphy’s Law is used to mean that misfortunes happen to you when they happen in succession. Obviously, misfortunes don’t happen to you in succession, but everyone will experience this situation and empathize with it.
Small misfortunes that often happen in everyday life
In fact, Murphy’s Law is found mainly in minor misfortunes in everyday life rather than in major disasters. For example, imagine the situation where you are getting dressed for an important presentation in the morning and your button falls off or you spill coffee. When such unfortunate events happen one after another, we think of Murphy’s Law and feel, “I’m the only one who is suffering from such misfortunes.” People often use Murphy’s Law as a tool to explain situations where something seems to be bothering them. But there are definitely scientific and psychological factors underlying it. So, what makes you feel like unfortunate things are happening to you over and over again?
The first reason is that people mistake unfortunate events that actually happen to only them as events that can happen with a low probability, when in fact they are events that can be explained statistically and scientifically. Professor Robert Matthew of Birmingham, UK, proved that Murphy’s Law is not simply an unfortunate event, but a statistically expected result. He explained this phenomenon using the example of standing in line at a supermarket checkout. If there are 10 checkout counters, the probability that the line I’m standing in will be the first to shrink is 1/10. However, the probability that another line will shrink faster is 9/10. Therefore, it is statistically natural that I will experience a 90% chance of seeing another line shrink faster than the line I’m standing in.
By the same principle, when I shop at a supermarket, the chocolate bar I bought to eat while going home is always at the bottom of the shopping basket, so I can’t get it out while I’m on my way home. This is a scientifically natural phenomenon in which a small object, such as a chocolate bar, moves through the physical mixing process in the shopping cart and ends up at the bottom among larger objects. There is no need to think that you are unlucky and cannot taste the chocolate bar.
Focusing on negative events and confirmation bias
The second reason is a psychological factor that people are more affected by and remember more easily the unfortunate events than the fortunate ones, even if they experience the same events. Murphy’s Law is caused by the confirmation bias, which is the psychological claim that negative events are more firmly imprinted in the mind, that is, people have a stronger memory of the unfortunate events than the fortunate ones. This contrasts with Sally’s Law, which states that only things that happen to one’s advantage happen to one by chance. If life is full of good and bad things, the probability of something bad happening is 50%.
Murphy’s Law states that when the situation we want to happen naturally does happen, such a situation is perceived as unimportant information due to the structural characteristics of the brain and quickly disappears from memory. On the other hand, unpredicted information is perceived as important information and is remembered for a long time. This makes it feel like the share of unfortunate things is very high. When this experience is repeated, people begin to give greater meaning to Murphy’s Law and feel that misfortune is happening to them repeatedly.
There is no logic in a world where only bad things happen to me. However, the two reasons mentioned above make people mistake what should have happened as if they have experienced misfortune, or they simply cannot remember the smooth things that have happened. There is no need to think that only bad things will happen to me because I am too pessimistic. Everything happens fairly through cause and effect. Therefore, instead of thinking only about the unfortunate things that happen to me by force majeure, I need to make rational judgments and be grateful for the smooth things. Cooper, the main character of the movie “Interstellar,” says this. “Murphy’s Law doesn’t mean that bad things happen. It just means that what is going to happen will happen.” This can be interpreted as meaning that when something negative happens to his daughter Murphy, it doesn’t mean that only negative things will happen to him, but that an event that will eventually happen, albeit with a small probability, will happen. It means that you should think about these negative events in advance and prepare countermeasures.
