In this blog post, we will look at various perspectives on whether the cause of global warming is human greenhouse gas emissions or a natural cycle.
“The rapid global warming is not normal. It is changing the way we live and affecting vegetation and ecosystems. Various diseases, including epidemics, are also not normal. “All sectors of society must properly address these changes.” This is an excerpt from a recent newspaper article. We have been taught since childhood that global warming is progressing mainly due to greenhouse gases emitted by humans, and that we need to take measures to address this. The above newspaper article also points out that human behavior is the cause of global warming and calls for countermeasures. But is the human impact the only problem? Environmental issues are complex and multi-layered, so it is difficult to believe that global warming is caused by a single cause.
Whenever I read articles like this, I wonder, “Can global warming, which is increasing by an average of 0.6°C per year, really be caused by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities alone?” And this is what I realized while reading the book “Don’t Be Fooled by Global Warming” and the program “The Great Global Warming Swindle” produced by Channel 4, that global warming is not just a problem caused by human behavior as the media conveys, and that carbon dioxide may not be the main cause. From now on, I will discuss the gap between our knowledge of global warming and the facts and the areas that may be problematic.
First of all, greenhouse gases are not the main cause of global warming. We have heard from various mass media that scientists have identified carbon dioxide as the main culprit of global warming. The logic of the scientists is that when the Earth receives energy from the universe, especially from the sun, and uses some of it and tries to send the rest out of the Earth, global warming occurs because greenhouse gases trap some of that energy. These greenhouse gases include not only carbon dioxide but also various gases, such as freon gas and methane, that have a greater greenhouse effect per molecule than carbon dioxide. However, carbon dioxide is the main cause because it is much more abundant than other greenhouse gases.
However, for this protective effect to occur, the concentration of carbon dioxide must be at least 15%, but the actual concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is only about 0.054%. Therefore, the proportion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is very low, and the proportion of carbon dioxide is even lower, so it is difficult to see that it has a significant impact on global warming. As another example of this question, we need to look at natural factors. The Earth has experienced repeated cycles of cooling and warming over the past hundreds of millions of years, which appear to be the result of a combination of complex factors, including volcanic eruptions, changes in ocean currents, and changes in the Sun’s periodic activity.
In addition, the discrepancy between the timing of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions and the rise in global temperature also indicates that carbon dioxide is not the main cause. Looking at the global temperature distribution, it began to rise in the late 19th century, but stopped rising in the 1940s, and then the temperature dropped for about 30 years before rising again in 1975. This shows that the influence of carbon dioxide is not significant, as temperatures have actually fallen since the 1940s, when the ‘post-war economic boom’ occurred and greenhouse gas emissions were high, following World War II. In addition, the rise in temperature that began in the late 19th century predates the invention of the automobile and the airplane, which shows that the claim that carbon dioxide is the main cause of global warming is contradictory.
Other skeptics argue that global warming is not caused by carbon dioxide emissions, but that carbon dioxide emissions have increased as a result of global warming. Analysis of glaciers at Antarctic research stations has found that changes in global temperature and carbon dioxide levels have been exactly the same over the past few hundred thousand years. In other words, the Earth was hotter when carbon dioxide levels were higher. However, a more detailed analysis showed that the rise in global temperature precedes the increase in carbon dioxide by about 600 years. In other words, the temperature rises, the surface of the ocean heats up, and the carbon dioxide dissolved in it is released, increasing the amount of carbon dioxide. Based on these findings, it is difficult to say that greenhouse gases are the main cause of global warming.
But even if carbon dioxide is not the main cause, the Earth’s temperature has been steadily rising over the past few years. So how can this be explained?
One of the most trusted theories is that the Earth experiences periodic warming due to periodic changes in the Sun’s activity. In fact, the Sun’s activity repeats in cycles of about 12 years, which are divided into solar maximum and solar minimum. It has already been proven that the Earth’s temperature changes even during the 12-year cycle of sunspot maximum and minimum, and the argument that the sun’s activity could affect the Earth’s temperature over a long period of 1,500 years is convincing. Rather than the theory that global warming is caused by the small concentration of carbon dioxide emitted by humans in the vast Earth’s atmosphere, the theory that the warming is caused by the activity of the Sun, which is larger than the Earth, is more convincing.
However, of course, the theory that global warming is caused by the activity of the Sun also needs more solid evidence. On the other hand, there are also arguments that efforts to protect the environment and achieve a sustainable energy transition are essential, given that natural disasters are occurring more frequently in various parts of the world due to the melting of the Arctic and Antarctic ice. Although there is a view that the impact of human activity on global warming may be limited, we need to be prepared to respond to climate change.
So, even though there is no exact evidence that the main cause of global warming is the increase in carbon dioxide, why have we come to believe that the cause of global warming is carbon dioxide produced by humans? In 1988, the UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization) established an intergovernmental panel called the IPCC to identify the risks of global temperature rise and take countermeasures. In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was created to reduce greenhouse gas emissions between countries, and greenhouse gas reduction targets have been set and implemented. The IPCC has published several reports highlighting the seriousness of global warming and emphasizing that all of humanity must join together to address it.
However, there are many interests and political relationships behind this, so we should not blindly believe the warnings about global warming. A typical example is when scientists included the results of experiments based on inaccurate data in the IPCC report to obtain research funding. In the report submitted at the time, the IPCC claimed that “the glaciers in the Himalayas are very likely to disappear by 2035,” which aroused awareness of climate change and won the IPCC the Nobel Peace Prize. However, in 2010, this claim was found to be incorrect. The year 2035, when the melting of the Himalayan glaciers was expected, was actually the year that the Russian research paper changed the order of the number 2350, and it was revealed that the area of the Himalayan glaciers was also inflated more than it actually was. In addition, the announcement that “about 55% of the Netherlands is below sea level” is also an exaggeration, as the Dutch government has actually announced that only about 26% is below sea level.
Finally, the exact reason for global warming is still a subject of debate, whether it is a man-made disaster or a periodic phenomenon of nature. Rather than blindly believing one theory and using black-and-white logic, we should take a critical look at the evidence supporting both theories, the interests behind them, and the purpose for which they were proposed. In addition, as seen in examples such as global warming, we should reflect on whether we have been living without criticism and conforming to the problems in our society as a whole, which have been taken for granted due to the influence of the media.
