In this blog post, we analyze the threats that artificial intelligence can pose, such as weaponization, job replacement, and creation replacement, and consider whether it is a real crisis or a new opportunity for humanity.
In 2014, Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk made a controversial remark at a centennial symposium hosted by the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics at MIT, saying that AI research is like summoning the devil, which became a hot topic. He was followed by the genius physicist Stephen Hawking, Microsoft’s Bill Gates, and the director of the Allen Institute for Brain Science in the United States, Christoph Koch, who warned of the dangers of artificial intelligence that surpasses human intelligence. However, if we look at the history of mankind, it is not a recent phenomenon that machines have surpassed human capabilities. When the pulley was developed, humans were outmatched by machines in terms of strength, and since the invention of the automobile, humans have been outpaced in terms of travel speed, and with the advent of calculators, humans have been outmatched by machines in terms of computing power. But why is it controversial that humans lag behind machines in terms of intelligence? Is it really a threat to humanity if machines surpass humans in intelligence? To answer this question, I will look at what characteristics of artificial intelligence can threaten humanity, examine three arguments made by those who warn of the dangers of artificial intelligence, and find out whether these dangers are really a threat to the survival of humanity.
According to the Wikipedia dictionary, artificial intelligence is “a technology that realizes human learning, reasoning, perception, and natural language comprehension in a computer program.” Before defining artificial intelligence, it is important to define intelligence first, and this definition uses intelligence as a concept that encompasses learning, reasoning, perception, and natural language comprehension. In other words, artificial intelligence is a machine that has not only the data processing speed of a conventional computer, but also the ability to think like a human. In addition, artificial intelligence can learn its own code and develop intelligence just like humans. When we think about the future of this technology, it is not so strange to imagine a machine with a higher level of intelligence than humans. Such imaginations soon make us tremble with fear, because it has been believed that the reason why humans have been able to exist as the strongest life form on Earth is because they have higher intelligence than other animals. If it is true that a life form with high intelligence dominates a life form with low intelligence, the day when machines dominate humanity will not be far off.
The specific threats to humans from the development of artificial intelligence are specifically mentioned by Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and others at the Future of Life Institute (FLI), the BBC, and Director of the Institute, Christoph Koch. The first is the threat of artificial intelligence being used as a weapon, the second is the threat of artificial intelligence to jobs, and the third is the prediction that artificial intelligence will be the last invention of humans. I will now examine these three threats and determine whether they can actually affect the survival of humans.
First, artificial intelligence can develop into a weapon that is more dangerous than nuclear weapons if developed as a weapon. This claim is contained in a letter signed by 1,000 world-class scholars and entrepreneurs published by the Future of Life Institute mentioned earlier. In their letter, they argue for a ban on the development of “AI-enabled weapons,” which they fear could develop into weapons that attack targets without human intervention. They also argue that the development of artificial intelligence is relatively easier than that of nuclear weapons, which are difficult to obtain raw materials for, and therefore easier to mass-produce, and that if they fall into the hands of terrorists or dictators, they could be used for “ethnic cleansing.” However, it is unlikely that this situation will occur easily. Considering the dangers of AI-automated weapons, nuclear weapons can be considered. As of 2023, nine countries possess nuclear weapons, but nuclear weapons have never been used for ethnic cleansing and have only been used twice in history. Also, considering the ease of developing AI-automated weapons, it is clear that this is not a big problem when it comes to easily developed firearms. Although there are occasional news reports of casualties caused by firearms, they are well managed under the authority of the state, and if AI can identify and manage areas that may cause problems in advance, it will be able to prevent the threat that is looming over humanity.
Second, the development of AI will threaten human jobs. The BBC in the UK launched a service in September 2015 that visualizes jobs that are threatened by robots. This service tells you what percentage of the job is at risk of disappearing if you enter the job type. The number one job, telemarketer, is at about 99%, and it predicts that about 42,570 of the 43,000 telemarketers in the UK will lose their jobs. However, as we have seen throughout human history, technological advances will create more and different jobs. In the 19th century in the UK, the spread of machines due to the Industrial Revolution created unemployed workers, which led to the Luddite movement, which sought to destroy the machines. However, the development of machines due to the Industrial Revolution only temporarily increased the unemployment rate, and in the long run, it created the profession of engineers who built and repaired machines. In modern times, engineers have developed into a wide range of professions that go beyond the physical construction and repair of machines to include the study of machine principles and even design. When you enter “mechanical engineer” in the aforementioned BBC service, the phrase “It’s quite unlikely” appears, saying that only 13% of jobs will disappear. This shows that compared to the jobs that disappeared in the 19th century in the UK due to machines, machines have provided more stable jobs rather than threatening human jobs. Artificial intelligence may eliminate many jobs, including doctors and financial analysts, but humans are constantly evolving and developing, so even if they become unemployed in one generation, they will create more stable jobs using artificial intelligence in the next generation.
Third, “Artificial intelligence will be the last creation of man.” This is what Christophe Koch, a leading AI scholar, said in an interview with the The New York Times. He referred to a situation in which artificial intelligence programs its own code to increase its intelligence. A few decades ago, college was a degree program for only a few. This means that it was possible to acquire knowledge that could be used in society within 20 years of being born. However, as society has become increasingly complex, the knowledge required for human development has become vast, and the time required to acquire it has also increased. It is expected that the point in the distant future when it becomes impossible for humans to accumulate knowledge to develop themselves will be the point when artificial intelligence replaces human creativity. However, it is a different matter whether artificial intelligence replaces human creation or whether the survival of humanity is threatened. Let’s think of this phenomenon in comparison with other cases in history where machines have surpassed human capabilities. Machines produce unimaginably greater power than humans can, and they are doing things that humans cannot. However, machines are not doing everything that requires human power. Society will change in the same way in terms of creation. Rather than threatening the survival of humanity and taking away all of humanity’s creative acts, the overtaking of human intelligence will help humanity create beyond the limits of intelligence.
So far, we have examined the three threats that the development of artificial intelligence poses to humanity, and we have confirmed that this is no different from the countless situations that have existed throughout human history, and that the development of artificial intelligence is a technology that will benefit humanity. In summary, while AI technology has the potential to be developed into a weapon, it can be well managed under the control of public authorities. It may take away jobs from humans, but it is also a medium that will provide more stable jobs. Finally, it will not stop humanity’s creative activities, but will help humanity overcome the “wall of progress.” Of course, the current generation may be temporarily threatened by the rapid development of AI, as they did not anticipate it. However, throughout history, humanity has always overcome the dangers of new technologies, and AI will be no different. In other words, rather than threatening the existence of the human species itself, AI will be recognized as one of the many inventions that threatened humanity when our descendants study this era in history books in the distant future, and it will flow as one stream in the great flow of history.
