In this blog post, we’ll examine whether technological advancement is an inevitable process or the result of serendipitous discoveries, drawing on various examples.
Every October, the world’s attention turns to the Nobel Prize laureates. In 2014, three Japanese scientists were awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for their contributions to the development of the blue LED. The blue LED they developed played a decisive role in enabling the practical application of LED lighting technology and established itself as a new light source, replacing traditional incandescent and fluorescent bulbs. Today, LEDs are widely used in various fields, including display devices such as smartphones and TVs, as well as various lighting fixtures, automobiles, and industrial equipment. At the time, a foreign media outlet emphasized the element of chance by describing the development of this technology as “serendipity”—a term implying a discovery that was not anticipated. In this way, whenever innovative technologies that did not previously exist emerge, we tend to view them as the result of accidental discoveries. On the other hand, there is also a perspective that interprets the process of technological development as an inevitable sequence of events driven by cause and effect. So, from what perspective should we view the trajectory of technological development?
Before examining the inevitability and chance involved in the flow of technological development, we must first clarify the concepts of “inevitability” and “chance.” “Inevitability” refers to a situation where the outcome of an event cannot help but occur in a certain way; it is determined by the causal relationships between actual phenomena and given conditions. If, in the process of a technology’s emergence, there exists a preceding technology with which it shares a causal relationship, that development process can be interpreted as inevitable. Conversely, “chance” refers to events that occur unexpectedly without a causal relationship. Thus, necessity and chance can be distinguished based on whether a causal relationship exists between events.
Generally, when we speak of technological development, we tend to think of a process of evolution based on existing technologies rather than the sudden emergence of a completely new technology. For example, examining the evolution of the bicycle reveals a progression from early pedal-less models to those equipped with pedals. Such changes can be viewed as a necessary process of development that naturally followed from the preceding technology. However, most technological developments cannot be categorized so simply. In other words, even if a newly developed technology is related to existing technology, it is difficult to conclude that the process is entirely inevitable if it involves the discovery of a new material or a technological breakthrough that did not previously exist. Looking at the previously mentioned example of the blue LED, the process of utilizing gallium nitride (GaN) to create the blue LED and overcoming various technical challenges cannot be explained solely as an extension of existing technology.
So, can we view technological advancement as the result of chance? To explore this, let’s consider the example of Steve Jobs, co-founder of Apple. If Steve Jobs had not existed, would Apple’s Macintosh and iPhone have ever seen the light of day? To answer this question, consider the trajectory of technological development: it is extremely rare for a technology to be completed based solely on one person’s original idea. For any research to take place, a research team must be formed, and during the research process, researchers typically draw upon existing technologies and prior research. Therefore, even if products of exactly the same form were not developed at the exact same time, it is entirely possible that similar personal computers, smartphones, or touchscreen-based mobile devices would have emerged. This demonstrates that it is difficult to view technological advancement as the result of chance alone.
From the dawn of humanity to the present day, technology has evolved continuously. It is difficult to attribute this trajectory of development solely to one perspective—whether inevitability or chance. This is because human creativity, social needs, the accumulation of existing technologies, and unexpected discoveries have all interacted with one another to drive technological progress. Ultimately, technological advancement can be viewed as a process in which chance discoveries are layered onto an inevitable trajectory, and this interaction will continue to generate new technological innovations in the future.
