In this blog post, we will examine whether the ban on publishing the results of public opinion polls during the election period is a legitimate measure for the fairness of elections or an oppression that infringes on the people’s right to know.
The issue of banning the publication of poll results during the election period has emerged as a social issue. This is because there are opposing claims that the publication of poll results affects voters’ voting intentions and undermines the fairness of elections, and that, conversely, the ban on publication violates the public’s right to know by restricting the media’s access to election information. In particular, public opinion polls play an important role in the election process in modern society, and their influence is increasing over time. Public opinion polls do not simply measure support for candidates, but also have a profound impact on the attitudes and behaviors of voters. In this context, the question of whether to ban the publication of public opinion poll results is becoming a complex issue that must consider both the fairness of elections and the rights of the people, beyond the scope of simple regulation.
Proponents emphasize the negative impact of the publication of public opinion polls based on the “bandwagon effect” and the “underdog effect.” According to the bandwagon effect, if the results of a public opinion poll are published before election day, voters will flock to the candidate with the higher approval rating due to the anti-waste vote mentality. This explains the tendency for voters to cast their votes for the leading candidate of their political camp to avoid voting for a spoiler if they believe that their preferred candidate is unlikely to win. On the other hand, the underdog effect explains the phenomenon of sympathy for underdog candidates leading to their votes, which can result in a favorable outcome for the underdog candidate. They argue that the publication of poll results has a significant impact on voting behavior, and that this negative effect is maximized as the election date approaches, so the publication of poll results should be prohibited. They also point out the possibility that poll results may distort reality, citing the fact that the conditions for fair public opinion polls are not yet mature. In fact, errors that occur in the survey method or sample selection process can reduce the reliability of the survey results, which can ultimately have a negative impact on voters’ decisions. Moreover, as has been experienced in the past, there have been many problems caused by illegal money and government power and the heated competition in election campaigns, which also supports the need to ban the publication of public opinion polls.
Opponents emphasize the importance of the right to know as a means of realizing freedom of expression. The right to know is a prerequisite for citizens to form their own opinions, and it is a right to freely obtain the information, ideas, and opinions necessary to participate in the process of exercising popular sovereignty. It is considered an essential element for citizens to exercise their sovereignty in a democratic society, and it is closely related to freedom of the press. This right is exercised by the media on the basis of the “public trust doctrine,” and is fulfilled only when the media’s access to information is guaranteed. The argument is that the publication of the results of public opinion polls is an unconstitutional measure that infringes on freedom of expression because public opinion trends regarding the candidate’s support or likelihood of winning are included in the scope of this right to know. In particular, the role of the media is important in resolving information asymmetry, and banning the publication of poll results may deprive voters of the opportunity to receive sufficient information about the election. They also emphasize that the publication of the survey results has not been clearly proven to interfere with the fairness of elections, and therefore, it has not been clearly proven that the publication has a negative impact on the elections. For example, empirical studies on the impact of public opinion poll results on voter turnout or election results have shown inconsistent results or different results depending on the region or situation. Therefore, it can be criticized that a blanket ban on the publication of public opinion poll results in such situations is an excessive regulation.
South Korea’s current election law prohibits the publication of poll results from six days before the election day until the election day. This shows that the ban period has been significantly reduced compared to the past when publication was restricted throughout the election period, and this change provides important implications for the debate over the pros and cons of the publication ban. In particular, the shortening of the ban period reflects a shift in social consensus on the role that the publication of poll results should play in the election process. Despite this shift, the debate over the prohibition of the publication of poll results continues, calling for a deeper consideration of how to strike a balance between the fairness of elections and the right to know in a democratic society.
